Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 10

(7:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 21 for 8 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.28 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model