4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 64

Denver Broncos 5 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 10, RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at SEA 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model