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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 11

Denver Broncos 5 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model