Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 66

Denver Broncos 8 – Seattle Seahawks 9

(4:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 65 yards to SEA 1, impetus ends at SEA 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model