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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 17

Denver Broncos 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model