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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 89

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to DEN 37, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 47 for 10 yards (13-M.Blair).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.27 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 46, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model