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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to DEN 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 35 for 11 yards (1-L.Shenault).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model