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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 61

Denver Broncos 13 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to SEA 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-43-K.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP