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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 60

Denver Broncos 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model