Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(7:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to DEN 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 33 for 5 yards (13-M.Blair, 42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model