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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model