4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model