Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 82

Houston Texans 15 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(5:49) 6-T.Townsend punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-46-J.Weeks, RECOVERED by IND-43-T.Denbow at HOU 5.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model