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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 44

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 9-B.Jordan to IND 41 for 3 yards (32-J.Blackmon, 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model