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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 2

Houston Texans 22 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 2, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model