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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 32

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP