Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(14:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 67 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 10-T.Hill ran ob at MIA 21 for 11 yards (89-L.Farrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model