4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 0-B.Berrios (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model