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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.27 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model