Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 7

(8:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model