4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model