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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model