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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 3

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model