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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 49

New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to MIN 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP