Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 31
New York Giants 3 – Minnesota Vikings 21
What Actually Happened
(8:34) 8-D.Jones up the middle to MIN 30 for 1 yard (99-J.Tillery).
The Three Options
GO
+2.27 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK
+0.87 EP
- 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT
+0.06 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
