4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 28 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to NYG 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 86-D.Slayton.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -1.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP