4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 5

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 9-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP