4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP