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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 14

New England Patriots 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:02) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model