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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 64

New England Patriots 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model