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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas to NE 35 for 1 yard (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.70 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model