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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 55

New England Patriots 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to CIN 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 10 for 4 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model