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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to NE 17, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model