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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PIT 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 22 for 13 yards (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model