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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 5-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to ATL 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 26-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 49 for 28 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model