Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin to PIT 27 for 12 yards (51-D.Malone). PENALTY on ATL-12-K.Hodge, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model