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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(14:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to PIT 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 22 for 6 yards (40-J.Bertrand).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model