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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (No Huddle) 2-J.Fields left guard to ATL 6 for no gain (53-N.Landman).

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.59 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model