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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 87

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to PIT 32, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at ATL 49 for 19 yards (44-T.Andersen). PENALTY on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 48. Penalty on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 45, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model