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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-13-S.Miller.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model