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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BUF 15, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.44 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP