4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 49 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.36 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model