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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model