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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to BUF 7 for 6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model