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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson sacked at BUF 15 for -7 yards (40-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model