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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 31 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 8-S.Martin punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.46 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP