Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

(11:55) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson scrambles left end to MIA 41 for 4 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.18 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model