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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 31 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.77 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model