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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short left to 84-R.Chosen (24-C.Bishop) [98-A.Johnson].

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.70 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model