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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP